Revisiting My Johor Retirement Plan After the Ringgit’s Strengthening

The recent strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit has once again forced me to pause and rethink something I had once taken for granted in my retirement planning.  Back in August 2024, I have written a similar post when the Ringgit strengthened against the Singapore Dollar to a high of SGD 1: MYR 3.308.  In that post, I concluded that if the exchange rate stabilized around SGD 1: MYR 3.20, I should be well prepared.  After that period, the exchange rate between the two currencies indeed stabilized around SGD 1: MYR 3.28 to 3.30 for an extended period.

However, fast forward to today, the picture looks different.  With the rate closer to SGD 1: MYR 3.09, I got to get out of my comfort zone and rethink and replan my finances if this is not going to be a temporary situation.  Perhaps, it is time for my to relook into the numbers, and plan for a more conservative retirement figure with a stronger Ringgit.  To be safe, I decided to stress-test my plan using a more conservative assumption of SGD 1: MYR 2.50, and evaluate whether my current dividend income goal would still hold up.

What My Dividend Income Looks Like Under Different Exchange Rates

At the moment, my portfolio generates about SGD 31,000 a year in dividends.  My goal for 2026 is to achieve SGD 36,000 of dividends, which is my goal for Barista FIRE.  On paper, that number has not changed.  However once I translate it into Ringgit, the reality shifts quite a bit.

Exchange Rate            MYR per Year from SGD 36K             MYR per Month from SGD 36K

1 : 3.50                          MYR 126,000.00                                  MYR 10,500.00

1 : 3.09                          MYR 111,240.00                                  MYR 9,270.00

1 : 2.50                          MYR 90,000.00                                    MYR 7,500.00

Seeing it laid out like this was sobering.  At an exchange rate of SGD 1: MYR 2.50, my annual income drops to MYR 90,000, or MYR 7,500 per month, which is still livable, but no longer obviously “comfortable” with plenty of buffer as cost of living continues to rise.

Is MYR 90,000 a Year Enough for Retirement in Johor?

To answer that, I had to step back and think about what a realistic retirement lifestyle in Johor would cost, not a bare-bones existence, but not luxury either.

A general and typical reasonable breakdown for a comfortable lifestyle might look something like this:

Category                                 Estimated MYR/ Year            Estimated MYR/ Month

Housing (maintenance)       24,000 - 36,000                       2,000 - 3,000

Food & Groceries                  24,000 - 36,000                       2,000 - 3000

Utilities & Phone                    6,000 - 9,000                           600 - 750

Healthcare & Insurance       10,200 - 20,400                       850 - 1,700

Transport & Misc                  12,000 - 24,000                       1,000 - 2,000

Total Comfortable Range    76,200 - 125,400                     6,350 - 10,450

When I place MYR 90,000 into this context, it lands somewhere in the middle.  It works, but only barely.  There is not a lot of room for error, inflation, medical surprises, or the occasional indulgence like travel.  This plan works only if everything goes right, and retirement planning is exactly where I do not want to rely on best-case scenarios.

How Much Dividend Income Would I Really Want?

If I aim for the upper end of a comfortable lifestyle, say MYR 125,000 per year, and assume an exchange rate of SGD 1: MYR 2.50, that translate to SGD 50,000 per year.  That means my current goal of SGD 36,000 falls short by about SGD 14,000 annually, or roughly 39%.

Here is how different comfort levels translate at exchange rate of SGD 1: MYR 2.50:

MYR 80,000 translate to SGD 32,000 (roughly where I am now)

MYR 90,000 translate to SGD 36,000 (my goal for 2026)

MYR 125,000 translate to SGD 50,000 (comfortable amount)

MYR 150,000 translate to SGD 60,000 (comfortable amount with travel buffer)

The conclusion is hard to ignore.  SGD 36,000 is enough for a modest retirement, but not the kind of relaxed, worry-free one I am aiming for.  

What This Means for My Portfolio Size

Assuming a sustainable 4.75% dividend yield, I can reverse-engineer what kind of portfolio I actually need.

To generate SGD 50,000/year:

50,000 ÷ 4.75% = SGD 1,053,000 (rounded up)

My 2026 goal of SGD 36,000/year implies a portfolio of roughly:

36,000 ÷ 4.75% = SGD 758,000 (rounded up)

So the gap is not abstract anymore.
I need about SGD 295,000 more in dividend-producing assets to fully insulate myself from a stronger Ringgit.

**If the exchange rate can stabilize around SGD 1: MYR 3, then the gap I need to work with decreases significantly to SGD 121,000.**

 

The Real Takeaway for Me

This exercise reminded me of a few uncomfortable but important truths:

a)     Exchange rates are a silent risk when income and expenses are in different currencies.

b)     Planning retirement based on favourable FX is not conservatism, it is optimism.

c)     At SGD 1 = MYR 2.50, my current dividend income works, but only with discipline and restraint.

d)     For genuine comfort and flexibility, SGD 50k/year in dividends feels like the safer target.

e)     That means either growing my portfolio by about 38%, trimming expectations, or a bit of both.

If the ringgit stays strong, I will be glad I ran these numbers early while I still have time to adjust, rather than after full retirement when flexibility is gone.  Sometimes, revisiting assumptions is uncomfortable, but it is far less painful than discovering, too late, that an old plan no longer fits reality.  Barista FIRE, here I come...!