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Sequence-of-Returns Risk: The Retirement Danger That Has Nothing to Do With Average Returns

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Many investors like to think that the stock market returns about 7 to 8% a year over the long run, and for S&P500, that number was about 10%.  That sounds reassuring, and it is often used as the basis for retirement planning.  But these averages can hide an important problem.  Two investors can experience exactly the same average return over 30 years and still end up in very different financial positions, simply because the good and bad years happened in a different order.  That is sequence-of-returns risk, or SRR. What Sequence-of-Returns Risk Actually Is Sequence-of-returns risk is the risk that the order in which investment returns happen matters, especially when you are withdrawing money from your portfolio.  Imagine two retirees who start with the same portfolio, withdraw the same amount every year and experience exactly the same set of returns over 25 years, just in reverse order. Retiree A experiences a major crash in year 1, followed by a long...
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Sold An ETF and Bought 4 Stocks

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I recently sold my position in the UOBAM Ping An FTSE ASEAN Dividend Index ETF (UPD) after holding it for less than a year.  I collected one distribution, sold at a small profit, and gave up the next payout.  When I first bought this ETF, I thought I was diversifying.  Looking back, I think I was actually di-worsifying. Why I bought UPD The idea was quite simple.  I wanted to diversify beyond Singapore, and at the same time, I wanted to increase the yield of my portfolio.  UPD ETF seemed to do both.  It was a dividend-focused ETF covering five ASEAN markets, namely Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, and it was targeting a distribution of at least 6% a year for 2026 and 2027. On paper, that sounded attractive.  I already had a large Singapore dividend portfolio.  Hence adding some ASEAN exposure and collect a decent amount of income along the way sounds sensible, especially when it included some larger economies in the...
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Nineth Month of Phase 1 Barista FIRE

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This post is just for personal reference, to record my personal income and expenses in my journey towards Barista FIRE. For the month of September, it was another simple month for me.  Simple life, simple expenses.  However, occasional spending spiked because I have exchanged some funds to MYR when exchange rate was favourable, above SGD 1 : MYR 3.20 in preparation for the annual insurance premiums I need to pay for at the end of the year.  Besides this large one-off expense, the others were just expenses for annual health check-ups and some other miscellaneous spending in preparation for the upcoming trip with my mum and aunt. Besides expenses, I also receive 'bountiful' dividend harvest this month from REITs and other stocks in my portfolio, and that concludes my Q3 dividend harvest.  Looking forward to the final quarter's earnings and dividends, and hoping I can achieve my annual dividend goal for 2026.   All in all, after 9 months of phase 1 Barista ...
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Portfolio Update Q3 2026

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This month marks the end of the 3rd quarter of 2026.  Thus it's definitely a good time for me to record the performance of my portfolio to track how it has been. To recap, I started my SG Dividends Portfolio in late 2017, and I began tracking the dividends and all reinvestment done starting 2018.  To date, my SG Dividends Portfolio consist of banks, REITs and defense technology.  On the other hand, I only started the US Growth Portfolio in late December 2021.  Currently, my US Growth Portfolio has been completely liquidated to pay off my Malaysia mortgage loan.  In March 2026, I started the MY Dividends Portfolio, which currently consist of only banks and consumers.  The purpose of this is to complement my SG Dividends Portfolio, and hopefully generate dividends in MYR to hedge against forex risks when I FIRE.   The most important event that happened this month is definitely the FED meeting and the speech by Kevin Warsh in mid of the month....
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Money Doesn't Buy Happiness. It Buys Choices.

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One of the most common sayings about money is that it cannot buy happiness.  I used to agree with that 100% when I was younger, but as I aged, I think there is a lot of truth in that.  Money alone cannot guarantee meaningful relationships, good health or a fulfilling life.  But after years of building my dividend portfolio, I have also come to realise something else.  Money may not buy happiness, but it buys choices, and sometimes, those choices quietly lead to a happier life. When I first started working as a private tutor, my income depended entirely on the number of lessons I taught.  No lessons meant no income.  It was as simple as that.  Back then, I packed my schedule as much as possible.  Every available slot became another tuition lesson.  As someone who is self-employed, every lesson represented income for that month.  Naturally, I became very protective of my schedule. Then came the inevitable cancellations.  Sometimes a...
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