~~Towards Barista FIRE~~

This will be a relatively short post to update on my portfolio and transactions for the month of February.   For the month of February, it remains a volatile month for global stock markets, with uncertainty spilling over into Singapore equities as well.  The biggest driver was a sharp rotation of monies out of tech stocks, sparked by renewed doubts over AI valuations.  After months of optimism, investors began questioning whether earnings could justify lofty prices, triggering sell-offs and increased volatility across markets, including Singapore. At the same time, interest rate expectations remained stubbornly high.  The FED signaled no urgency to cut rates, keeping bond yields elevated.  This is especially so with the latest higher than expected PPI numbers.  This weigh on rate-sensitive sectors in Singapore such as REITs and high-dividend stocks, as investors compared equity yields against safer fixed-income alternatives.  Adding to the unease...

The markets have been reminding us lately that volatility is not a theory, it is reality.  Over the past weeks, we have seen our three local banking giants, namely DBS, OCBC, and UOB, and even ST Engineering, are taking turns to drop 2–3% in a single day.  Even gold, the supposed safe haven, experiences sharp spikes, followed by furious plunge in prices recently.  The headlines made it sound dramatic, especially from finfluencers out there, and the red numbers looked uncomfortable for many investors and traders alike. At the same time, over in US markets, many AI and software companies have plunged 20–30% from their all-time highs.  The same names that were market darlings not long ago are now experiencing sharp corrections.  Sentiment has clearly shifted.  Thankfully, I had already liquidated my US portfolio some time back, so I am not directly affected by that wave of selling.  However that does not mean I am insulated from volatility.  My Sing...

“Penny wise, pound foolish” is a phrase I have heard since I was young, usually used to describe people who focus too much on small savings while missing the bigger picture.  Over time, I have realised that this saying applies surprisingly well to investing, and more uncomfortably, to my own behaviour as an investor. There have been many occasions where I wanted to buy a particular share, but instead of relying on valuation, fundamentals, or any form of structured analysis, I fixated on a price that simply felt right.  That number was not derived from spreadsheets or charts.  It was just a number that I felt nice to own the stock at, such as whole numbers or seemingly auspicious numbers ending with '8', and I told myself I would only buy if the price came down to that level.  If I am lucky, sometimes it did.  When it did, I felt delusionally clever, disciplined, and patient.  It reinforced the belief that waiting was the right thing to do. However more of...

The recent strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit has once again forced me to pause and rethink something I had once taken for granted in my retirement planning.  Back in August 2024 , I have written a similar post when the Ringgit strengthened against the Singapore Dollar to a high of SGD 1: MYR 3.308.  In that post, I concluded that if the exchange rate stabilized around SGD 1: MYR 3.20, I should be well prepared.  After that period, the exchange rate between the two currencies indeed stabilized around SGD 1: MYR 3.28 to 3.30 for an extended period. However, fast forward to today, the picture looks different.  With the rate closer to SGD 1: MYR 3.09, I got to get out of my comfort zone and rethink and replan my finances if this is not going to be a temporary situation.  Perhaps, it is time for my to relook into the numbers, and plan for a more conservative retirement figure with a stronger Ringgit.  To be safe, I decided to stress-test my plan using a mo...