~~Towards Barista FIRE~~

One thing I have learned from investing is that nobody knows where the next crisis will come from. Every crisis feels different while it is happening.  The headlines are different, the causes are different, the fear is different.  Yet when I look back at history, I notice that the lessons are often surprisingly similar.  Markets panic, asset prices collapse, people become fearful, and eventually, life moves on.  As investors, we do not get rewarded for accurately predicting every crisis.  We get rewarded for surviving long enough to benefit from the recovery. That is why I find it useful to study past crises, not because I think the next crisis will look exactly the same, but because understanding how previous generations navigated difficult times can help me better prepare my portfolio, my finances, and my lifestyle for whatever comes next. When I look back over the last few decades, four major crises stand out: the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the 2000 Dot-...

Recently I was watching this video by The Fifth Person , where Victor talked about how modern crises nowadays seem shorter compared to the past, and it got me thinking about how different market crashes feel today compared to something like the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.  The more I thought about it, the more I realized he actually has a point.  Modern market crashes really do feel different now.  They feel sharper, more emotional, more intense, but at the same time, recoveries also seem to happen much faster compared to the past. Back during the 2008 GFC, the suffering dragged on for years.  According to Google, it took 5 years and 5 months for the S&P 500 to return to pre-crisis levels.  It was not just a temporary panic.  It felt like the entire global financial system itself was slowly collapsing from the inside.  Lehman Brothers collapsed, banks failed, housing prices kept falling, unemployment kept rising.  People genuinely feared th...

The market has a way of humbling me. In mid February, my portfolio was hitting all time high in value, and I got over-confident.  In fact, I was ignoring the greedy sentiments on the ground, and I chased Development Bank of Singapore (DBS), Aims Apac REIT (AAR) and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust at above SGD 57.50, SGD 1.50 and SGD 2.45 respectively.  At that point, prices were running, sentiment was strong, and the urge to “just get in before ex-dividend date” felt rational.  After all, as a dividend investor, being able to get more dividend income in the next payout seemed to have more pros than cons?  However, the fact is ex-dividend date is 2 months away, and I could have waited for price to correct and valuations to be more reasonable before dipping my toes into buying the shares. Lo and behold, then the Middle East war headlines hit.  Risk sentiment turned immediately and the classic “dog and owner” analogy returned, where prices (the dog) runnin...

This will be a relatively short post to update on my portfolio and transactions for the month of February.   For the month of February, it remains a volatile month for global stock markets, with uncertainty spilling over into Singapore equities as well.  The biggest driver was a sharp rotation of monies out of tech stocks, sparked by renewed doubts over AI valuations.  After months of optimism, investors began questioning whether earnings could justify lofty prices, triggering sell-offs and increased volatility across markets, including Singapore. At the same time, interest rate expectations remained stubbornly high.  The FED signaled no urgency to cut rates, keeping bond yields elevated.  This is especially so with the latest higher than expected PPI numbers.  This weigh on rate-sensitive sectors in Singapore such as REITs and high-dividend stocks, as investors compared equity yields against safer fixed-income alternatives.  Adding to the unease...

The markets have been reminding us lately that volatility is not a theory, it is reality.  Over the past weeks, we have seen our three local banking giants, namely DBS, OCBC, and UOB, and even ST Engineering, are taking turns to drop 2–3% in a single day.  Even gold, the supposed safe haven, experiences sharp spikes, followed by furious plunge in prices recently.  The headlines made it sound dramatic, especially from finfluencers out there, and the red numbers looked uncomfortable for many investors and traders alike. At the same time, over in US markets, many AI and software companies have plunged 20–30% from their all-time highs.  The same names that were market darlings not long ago are now experiencing sharp corrections.  Sentiment has clearly shifted.  Thankfully, I had already liquidated my US portfolio some time back, so I am not directly affected by that wave of selling.  However that does not mean I am insulated from volatility.  My Sing...

Previously, I wrote about how compounding is the 8th wonder of the world.  When used wisely, it is the magic that helps me grow wealth quietly in the background, as long as I give it sufficient time, inject a big enough capital, and manage a sufficiently decent yield.  However what people often ignore, forget or dismiss, is how compounding does not discriminate.  It is just a force, and it can just as easily work against one, as it can work in one's favor. In my own journey, I have seen both sides of compounding. On the positive side, compounding has helped my dividend portfolio grow.  Every reinvested payout plants a seed that continues to bear fruit.  But on the negative side, I have also experienced how a property with negative cashflow quietly chips away at my finances.  Month after month, it drains resources that could have been building my future.  People often say mortgage debt is “good debt”, but I have come to realize that if it does not p...

Lately, it feels like every time I check the markets, both the US and SG stock indices are charting fresh all-time highs, and even my portfolio are hitting new highs daily.  What is more surprising is that this continues to happen even when the economic data, like the latest disappointing employment numbers, does not quite line up with the optimism we are seeing on the screen.  It makes me wonder are we riding too high on hope rather than fundamentals?  Consequently, the biggest question in my mind is, when is the next correction/ market crash that every seasoned investors are talking about, coming? Currently, markets are being buoyed by one main factor: the expectation that the FED will continue cutting rates, at least 2 more times this year.  Liquidity and cheap money are the oxygen of financial markets, thus every time the FED signals that cuts are on the horizon, investors rush to front-run that move, pushing valuations higher and higher. However, how long can ...

For heads up, I am no property expert, in fact, I am more of an amateur.  This is also the main reason why I am rather hesitant to write this post as it discloses my "failed venture", or should I say, an investment decision that did not turn out the way I thought it would.  However I think it is important for me myself to look into my failure and scrutinize it so that I can truly learn and grow from this episode, and thus be in a better financial position to progress into Barista FIRE phase.  Note that this is not financial advice, and it is mainly as a personal record.  As I grow older and gradually refine my financial journey, I often find myself questioning the balance between investing for future retirement and reducing debt for peace of mind.  Recently, this question has become more pressing because of my intention to progress into my next phase of life, Barista FIRE.  The main issue lies with my investment property in Malaysia.  For information,...

This will be a relatively short post, just to update on the transactions for the month. For the month of August, it was a jittery month.  For a large part of the month, the markets were anticipating the FED to cut interest rates in September, and the probability of it materializing was near 100%.  However, markets were thrown with a set of much hotter than expected PPI numbers, which meant that the tariffs-linked inflation is creeping in.   However, even with such unfavourable news, the US market decided to largely ignore it, and continue with its slow and steady uptrend.  It seems cautiously optimistic, but at the same time, the jitters and uneasiness may mean that cracks are happening beneath the rise. I do not really know what to make out of the numbers, as all these reports and numbers were out of my control.  I can only do what I could, which is to remain invested and hope for the best.  My US Portfolio, although small in percentage terms, remain...

Just for heads up, I think this post may ruffle some feathers, but I want to say that I am not targeting any specific person.  I am just sharing my thoughts through a general post.  Most of the following points are my personal opinions while some are thoughts share by my friends during casual discussions.  I am not against any individuals following the recommendations by gurus and performing the investment transactions on their own.  Instead, what is baffling me is why individuals pass their monies to gurus who will "invest" on their behalf. In today’s financial world, it has never been easier for individuals to start investing.  With low-cost Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), robo-advisors, and a mountain of free educational resources from books, YouTube videos and blogs, anyone with a smartphone and internet connection can begin building their own portfolio in just minutes.  Yet, despite this transformation in the investing world towards simplification, many...

This is going to be a relatively short post as it is just going to serve as a reminder and reflection for my personal investing journey.  Nothing discussed here should be treated as financial advice of any sorts, it is just my personal thoughts and actions. In my previous post , I mentioned that I have the intention to liquidate part of my US Growth Portfolio to either further diversify into the Malaysia stock market, or to channel the funds back to the Singapore market.  The purpose for doing this is to further prop up my dividend portfolio, to increase my dividend income for the years ahead.  At the same time, I would probably focus solely on growing my US Portfolio via ETFs like VOO, VTV and FXI in my portfolio moving forward, instead of individual shares.  At the start of May, the currency movements were worrisome as the US Dollar started weakening rapidly against major currencies as well as all ASEAN currencies.  In addition, Singapore Dollar has also weake...

Investing in blue-chip companies, especially those that are state-owned like Keppel Corporation and CapitaLand, or those controlled by billionaires like Mr Kwek Leng Beng (Hong Leong Group) and Robert Kuok (Wilmar, Shangri-La), is often perceived as a safe bet.  At least to me personally, I think that generally they provide a basic safety net, as the management of these companies are supposedly much more capable than myself in the operations and management of these companies, therefore it should be quite safe to invest my monies in them, and let them help me generate more returns from my capital invested, especially when many of these companies are typically well-established, financially sound, and possess strong market dominance.  However, history tells us that investing in such entities may not always equate to safe investments.  In Singapore, we have "once-upon-a-time" stated-owned listed companies like Noble and Singapore Press Holdings that ended up delisted, and mor...

Do note that this is not investment advice, and definitely not any recommendation to buy or sell, because even I myself do not know what I should and will do. The recent magnitude 7.1 Miyazaki earthquake that rattled southern Japan on 8th August 2024 serves as a stark reminder of the potential for a far more devastating event - an earthquake along the Nankai Trough.  The situation is also brought into world-wide attention due to the  megaquake advisory  released by the Japanese Government.  This region, known for its seismic activity, has a history of producing "megathrust" earthquakes, with the last significant events occurring in 1944 (Tōnankai Earthquake) and 1946 (Nankai Earthquake).  These quakes, which occur roughly every century, could potentially reach a magnitude of 9, resulting in catastrophic damage.   Experts estimate there is a 70 to 80% chance that a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake could strike the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years....