Looking Forward To A Better 2024

In a blink of an eye, we are already in 2024.  2023 has been a year of surprises, ups and downs.  As a lousy predictor of events, many of my predictions for 2023 did not come true.  The recession that was announced by analysts and economists since 2022 did not materialize even till today.  Will it happen in 2024?  It is anyone's guess.  I am no longer concerned by such events that are beyond my control, and I just want to concentrate on the things that I can manage.  The purpose of this post will be for me to record my hopes and wishes for the year ahead, and some of the things that I will do to my portfolio, and also certain plans for my friends and family.

1)     Changes To The Way I Manage My US Growth Portfolio

It is rather embarrassing to talk about this at this point in time because it took me so long to realize this issue and take action.  Being a passive investor, my aim in investing is to continuously accumulate shares in strong companies that I have conviction in, and hold on to the shares.  This works well for my SGX Dividend Portfolio, as my dividend income has been increasing year on year towards my Barista FIRE and FIRE target numbers, gradually but surely.  However, this methodology does not seem to work too well with the US Growth Portfolio.  I think I need some form of active management for this portfolio, to "buy low sell high".  

As little to no dividends are paid out by the US companies I invest in, in the event the share price decline, all unrealized profits will be lost, and the waiting game restarts.  One good example is Tesla.  I did not sell part of the shares when it rose to near USD 300 in mid July, only to witness its decline again.  This meant all unrealized profits are gone, and I will need to wait for another cycle.  If I had sold part of the shares, the realized profits can be recycled to purchase more shares when price decline occurs.  Of course I understand all this theory talks are way too simplistic as things may not go my way.  The share price may continue climbing after I sold, and thus unable to buy back shares at lower price.  Furthermore, this execution means I am going to time the markets, which has been a no-no thus far, but I suppose I am going to give myself 2024 to try and test out how active management impacts my US Growth Portfolio.  Results will be announced at the end of 2024! 

2)     Hitting Basic Healthcare Sum (BHS)

I have posted about achieving BHS in 2023.  However, with the payment of premiums for Careshield Life, the amount in MA is now below BHS.  Thankfully, I am still working, so even though the BHS for 2024 is SGD 71,500 (the increment is higher than the interest payable for MA), my contribution for 2024 will enable the new BHS be achieved very soon once again, with the excess flowing to Special Account to boost my retirement 'bond'.

3)     Including Gold Into My Portfolio

In an earlier post, I mentioned that I would like to follow the footsteps of the Singapore Government and include physical gold in my portfolio.  I was thinking of purchasing 50 grams of gold bar per year, for 20 years to accumulate a total of 1 kg worth of gold.  However after deeper thinking, on a personal level, I would think that this may have slightly more cons and pros, as regardless, gold is a physical asset that does not generate interest or dividends, and only appreciate in value when paper money continue to devalue.  As the price of gold is at an all time high now, I think now is not a good time to buy.  I would defer the purchase to a later time of the year when the price of gold declines, and in addition, I will downsize the purchase to 1 troy ounce gold bar per year instead of 50 grams per year.  The cash saved can be used to invest in other dividend shares to compound and increase my annual dividend income.

4)     FED Pivot Ahead

The long awaited FED pivot is coming and should commence in 2024.  Optimistic analysts are saying that rate cuts will occur as early as March 2024, while less optimistic analysts are pricing in a June/ July rate cuts.  I am not betting on the timeline as that is not within my control.  I will just continue to accumulate shares in my SGX Dividend Portfolio to boost my dividend income, and hopefully when interest rate cuts really happen, that can help to propel the share price of the interest-rate sensitive counters, and fuel tech rally in my US Growth Portfolio as well.  Nonetheless, I understand things are not as straight forward, because rate cuts has been priced in.  Any further rally would only possibly happen if the pace of rate cuts happen much faster than expected.  However, if rate cuts are happening at a faster pace, that should mean trouble in the macro-economic environment that needs the FED to make such a move.  Analyst Tom Lee also shared that he predicts the 1st half of 2024 will be flat or slightly down by 5%, while the 2nd half of 2024 will be bullish and the S&P 500 could end at 5,200.  As such, I think 2024 would probably be a mild-positive year.

5)     Bring My Mum To More Places She Wants To Go

I started to spend more on myself and began solo travels in 2022 after the pandemic.  I have visited Phnom Penh in Cambodia, Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, Bangkok in Thailand and Bali in Indonesia, some alone, some with my mum.  As observed, all the places I visited are in ASEAN with a strict budget, as I mostly keep my trips to within SGD 650.00 all in.  This year, it will be the first time that I decide to spend more to bring my mum to Japan, one of the top places in her wish-list.  It will be nice to explore an unknown region together with my mum, without the hectic schedule like a tour, with own time own target to explore Kyoto-Osaka-Nara-Kobe at a relaxing pace.  Hopefully this will be a trip to remember, to spend quality time overseas with my mum and create wonderful memories.  If the trip works well, I may plan a trip to Korea with her in the following year.

6)     My Portfolio

This is a good time for me to predict the performance of my portfolio.  I would like to set an annual dividend target of SGD 26K, and my portfolio value to exceed SGD 550K by the end of 2024.  This is just a target and whether they can be achieved is beyond my control.  Just hoping for the best!

And that is all!  May everyone have a great 2024 ahead!  Barista FIRE, here I come...!